Another busy economic week is ahead of us as investors are trying to predict what the Fed will do next.
Bitcoin ends August and enters September under renewed pressure, but geopolitics won’t be the only factor traders need to watch this week.
Several important US economic reports are due between Tuesday and Friday, culminating with the August jobs report, which could significantly shift expectations for the Fed’s September meeting.
First Tests Arrive Tuesday
Monday is likely to be a quiet day on the economic front, but it saw military action between the US and Iran as both countries resumed attacks against each other. The impact on BTC was felt immediately, with the asset slipping by over two grand to just under $77,000.
Tuesday brings two reports capable of moving markets: the July JOLTS Job Openings and August ISM Manufacturing PIM, both scheduled for 10:00 ET. Economists expect job openings to decline slightly to around 7.27 million, from 7.36 million previously.
A stronger labor market could reinforce expectations that the Fed has room to raise rates again, potentially supporting Treasury yields and the greenback. Such environments are typically not favorable for risk assets like bitcoin.
The ADP Private Employment Report will go live on Wednesday, which offers another indication of labor-market strength. Thursday delivers weekly jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI.
Key Events This Week:
1. August Chicago PMI data – Monday
2. August ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices data – Tuesday
3. July JOLTS Job Openings data – Tuesday
4. August ADP Nonfarm Employment data – Wednesday
5. August ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Prices data – Thursday
6.…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 30, 2026
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All Eyes on Friday
The most important macro event on US soil arrives on Friday at 8:30 ET: The August employment report. General expectations suggest that the world’s largest economy has added approximately 58,000 jobs in August, while unemployment is anticipated to remain at 4.1%. The July report showed that the US actually lost 23,000 jobs, adding to existing concerns that the labor market is losing momentum.
Friday’s numbers could therefore significantly reshape the debate surrounding the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting. A stronger-than-expected report could suggest employment remains resilient despite restrictive monetary policy. This could be bearish for risk assets, as if it’s combined with stubborn inflation, it could strengthen the case for a rate hike.
In contrast, a weaker report could reduce those expectations and provide some relief for the crypto market, although an unexpectedly sharp deterioration could instead raise recession concerns and trigger another risk-off reaction.
