Ethereum is attempting to stabilize after recovering from its June lows, but the broader trend has yet to shift decisively in favor of the bulls. While the daily chart still reflects a bearish market structure beneath key moving averages, the 4-hour timeframe shows improving short-term momentum as price presses against key resistance levels.
Meanwhile, on-chain data continues to provide a constructive backdrop, with exchange balances falling to fresh cycle lows.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
ETH is trading around $1.92K after rebounding from the $1.6K demand zone, where buyers stepped in aggressively following the sharp June selloff. The recovery has carried price back above a major confluence resistance formed by the long-term descending trendline and the 100-day moving average near $1.9K.
Despite the bounce, Ethereum remains below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 200-day MA still trending lower near the $2.1K region. As long as the asset remains beneath these dynamic resistance levels, the broader market structure continues to favor sellers.
The first key resistance lies at $2.1K, where the mentioned 200-day moving average intersects with a major supply zone. A successful breakout above this cluster could expose the next resistance zone around $2.4K, which previously acted as a major distribution area.
On the downside, the immediate support is located around $1.85K, followed by the stronger demand zone at $1.6K. Losing the $1.85K area and dropping back inside the descending channel would invalidate the recent recovery attempt and likely reopen the path toward the $1.6K demand zone and potentially lower.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The lower timeframe presents a more constructive picture. ETH has spent the past several sessions consolidating above the $1.85K support zone while gradually compressing beneath a descending trendline that has capped the price since the late-July high.
This structure resembles a short-term falling wedge or descending channel breakout attempt, with buyers repeatedly defending higher lows despite continued selling pressure from trendline resistance.
A decisive breakout above the descending trendline could trigger a move toward the psychological $2K level and the larger ascending channel’s upper boundary. Clearing those levels would strengthen the case for a continuation toward the daily resistance cluster near $2.2K and even $2.4K.
However, failure to break the trendline could lead to a breakdown of the $1.85K support, and if that zone gives way, ETH may revisit the broader demand area around $1.75K before buyers attempt another recovery.
On-Chain Analysis
The Exchange Supply Ratio continues to trend lower, reaching approximately 0.127, the lowest reading shown on the chart. This persistent decline indicates that a smaller proportion of Ethereum’s circulating supply is being held on centralized exchanges.
Historically, falling exchange balances suggest investors are moving coins into self-custody or long-term storage rather than preparing them for immediate sale. While this metric does not guarantee higher prices in the short term, it generally reflects declining spot sell-side pressure and improves the medium-term supply dynamics.
The combination of shrinking exchange reserves and ETH holding above a key support zone creates a constructive backdrop. Nevertheless, price confirmation remains essential. A sustained move above the descending trendline and the $2.2K resistance cluster would be needed to align the improving on-chain picture with a confirmed bullish technical reversal.
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