Iran to submit revised peace proposal amid cautious market response

CNN reports that Iran is preparing to submit a revised peace proposal. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, sit at 1.1% YES, down from 10% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The news of a potential new proposal has barely moved the April 30 deadline market, but later dates tell a different story. The May 31 market is at 29.5% YES, and the June 30 market is at 43.5% YES. The 28-point gap between the April 30 and May 31 contracts suggests traders expect real progress in the coming month, just not by the end of April.

Combined 24-hour face value across these markets is $5.3 million, with $854,588 in actual USDC traded. It takes $27,667 to move the April 30 market by five points, which indicates solid order book depth. The largest recent move was a six-point spike at 11:14 AM that quickly faded, a sign that traders aren’t buying the near-term timeline.

Why it matters

A revised Iranian proposal would be a concrete step in negotiations, but the source tier and recent price action both point toward caution. At 1.1¢, a YES share pays 90.9x, though the April 30 deadline leaves almost no room for the multi-step process a permanent deal would require.

What to watch

Confirmation from Abbas Araghchi or US Envoy Steve Witkoff would be the strongest near-term signal. Any movement from Pakistani mediators or the Trump administration could also shift these contracts quickly.

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