Key Takeaways
- Devere Group CEO Nigel Green warns index funds and pensions could expose millions of savers to Anthropic.
- Anthropic reported $16.3 billion in first-half revenue and an $80.7 billion net loss.
- Founders would retain 50.1% of voting power after the proposed listing.
Green Challenges Anthropic’s Proposed Valuation
Millions of savers could indirectly own Anthropic shares through index funds and pensions, Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory firm Devere Group, warned in an Oct. 26 statement supplied to Bitcoin.com News. His concerns center on who bears the costs if artificial intelligence spending outpaces revenue.
Anthropic, which makes the AI assistant Claude, plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, its IPO filing announcement states. Markets anticipate a raise of up to $100 billion at roughly a $2 trillion valuation, Devere’s release notes, though Anthropic says its share count and price range have not yet been determined.
A confidential submission on June 1 allowed regulators to review offering documents before their public release. “Anthropic is asking ordinary investors to help bankroll one of the largest spending commitments any company has ever made, at a price of around $2 trillion, while warning in the same document its growth may slow and it could need more money sooner than expected,” Green said. He added:
“Frankly, it’s nuts.”
“Nobody’s disputing the business is extraordinary. The issue is who carries the risk if the spending runs ahead of the revenue. After this listing, the answer is the public,” the Devere CEO cautioned.
Anthropic’s Computing Commitments Reach $518 Billion
First-half revenue reached $16.3 billion, while net losses totaled $80.7 billion. Approximately $72 billion of that loss reflected noncash accounting charges tied to convertible bonds. The release also cites third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion and an adjusted profit.
Computing agreements encompass at least $518 billion in infrastructure commitments over a decade. These include up to $120.5 billion for Nvidia-powered capacity from SpaceXAI into 2029, plus up to $114.5 billion with Google through 2033. Green emphasized:
“These are numbers on the scale of national budgets. The revenue growth is astonishing, but it has to stay astonishing for years to cover commitments this size, and Anthropic itself warns its growth rate may not be sustainable and could fall.”
Founder Control and Potential Pension Exposure
Anthropic’s founders would retain majority voting power, and the company expects no dividend for the foreseeable future, according to the release. Green questioned the resulting terms for public investors: “Public shareholders will be putting in the money without getting control, income, or certainty. Valuations like this leave very little room for disappointment.”
Separately, 5% of shares have been placed in the Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, established to support public benefit initiatives. The board can allocate up to 2% more whenever the stock rises 50% above the preceding milestone, potentially diluting existing ownership.
Crypto derivatives already implied an Anthropic valuation near $1.87 trillion. These speculative contracts reference company value without conveying shares, and their calculations depend partly on assumed share counts.
Exposure through those contracts differs from holding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies or owning public equity. Green’s warning extends to savers whose funds might eventually purchase the actual stock:
“A listing this size is also likely to find its way into index funds and pensions fairly quickly, so millions of savers may end up owning a slice whether they’ve chosen to or not.”
