Trump Says the Ceasefire Is Over
Trump posted on Truth Social on July 11 that talks with Iran would continue but that hostilities would not pause. His full statement read:
“The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ‘talks’. We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER! 1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME! Orders have already been given, and the U.S. Military is ready, willing, and able, for a one year period of time, subject to extension, to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran – PRAISE BE TO ALLAH! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
The statement followed a week of direct U.S. strikes on Iranian military and port targets and Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin Holds Ground Near $64,000
Bitcoin traded at $64,134 as of 11:30 a.m. EDT on July 12, up 0.6% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.283 trillion, according to market stats. The leading crypto asset remains about 49.2% below its October 2025 all-time high above the $126,000 zone.
The price action followed a sharp early-July rebound from lows near $57,800. Short liquidations exceeded $450 million in a single 24-hour stretch on July 6, and spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted $266 million in net inflows that day, led by Blackrock’s IBIT with $209 million. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, sold 3,588 BTC for roughly $216 million that same week, its largest single sale on record.
War Spills Into Traditional Markets
The Iran conflict has moved beyond crypto’s usual macro triggers and into direct disruption of global trade. The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed “until further notice” after firing on vessels using routes it considers unauthorized. A Cyprus-flagged container ship, the MV GFS Galaxy, suffered engine-room damage from an Iranian strike, with one crew member reported missing.
Daily transits through the strait, normally 120 to 140 vessels, have dropped to as few as 10 on some days. Oil prices have swung 5% to 6% on escalation headlines, feeding directly into risk appetite across equities and crypto.
Why Some Traders Say the Bear Market Won’t End Yet
More than half of bitcoin’s circulating supply remains underwater, a level first reached in early June, according to K33 Research. Fear and Greed Index readings stayed in “Extreme Fear” through much of the period before improving modestly toward Neutral by July 12.
Many market observers point to this combination, a supply base still sitting at a loss and a war with no resolution in sight, as the reason some traders expect the bear market to persist. The argument holds that capital will stay defensive as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains contested and Trump continues to signal open-ended military commitment.
What This Means for Traders
Bitcoin’s $62,000 to $63,000 zone has held as support through multiple tests this week. A close above $65,000 would open a path toward $67,000, according to technical levels drawn from pivot analysis. A break below $62,000 exposes the market to a retest of June’s lows near $58,000.
Futures open interest has declined even as prices rose, a divergence that suggests the latest rally has leaned on short covering rather than fresh spot demand. Traders watching the U.S.-Iran conflict are treating oil price spikes and Hormuz shipping data as leading indicators for risk-asset direction, crypto included.
Watching the Middle East Alongside the Charts
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said this week that forces are “ready and on alert for a resumption of fighting.” Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has pledged to avenge his father’s death following the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, buried July 9 in Mashhad after processions that drew millions. No ceasefire framework currently governs the conflict.
