Iran declares US-Israel defeat after ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, China

Iran’s National Security Council declared a U.S.-Israel defeat after Pakistan and China brokered a ceasefire. The ceasefire by April 15 market hit 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

A 24-point spike at 10:34 PM drove the move as traders reacted to the diplomatic progress. The April 30 market and later dates also sit at 100% YES, indicating traders expect the diplomatic track to hold past April 15.

Meanwhile, the Iranian regime fall by June 30 market dropped to 8.5% YES from 12% a day ago. Iran’s ability to negotiate and frame the ceasefire as a victory weakens the case for imminent regime instability.

Combined 24-hour USDC volume hit $5.19M, with $1.39M on the April 15 ceasefire alone. That level of volume reflects serious trader commitment, not scattered speculation. The largest single move, a 24-point jump, came directly on the ceasefire announcement.

Why it matters

The ceasefire is a potential de-escalation point amid continued conflict. For traders, a YES share on the regime fall market priced at 8¢ pays $1 on success, a 12.5x return. But that payout looks unlikely unless internal fractures or leadership changes emerge soon.

What to watch

The upcoming Islamabad talks are the next catalyst. Key signals: intermediary actions by Oman or Qatar, named envoys, or any legislative moves by Iran’s parliament related to the Strait of Hormuz. Any of these could move the odds.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.